Families are a marker of a healthy city. The average tenure of an expatriate in Dubai is lengthening, and family growth is outpacing population growth. These two trends are linked, and together they suggest the city is evolving from a place to make money into a place to stay. Most analysis of Dubai's growth focuses on how many people are arriving. We are more interested in why fewer are leaving. This year's Think Piece examines the demographic shift toward long-term families putting down roots, and why this matters more than headline population growth. Many Dubai companies, including utilities, banks, telecoms and property developers, benefit from population growth. The quality of that growth matters as much as the quantity. A city of long-term residents is a different proposition from one with high turnover, and we do not think the market has priced the distinction.

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For years we have argued that Saudi Arabia would eventually ease its foreign ownership limits on listed equities. That moment now appears close, and the market has rallied on the expectation. We welcome the change as a meaningful step in the continued deepening of Saudi capital markets, and we expect it to draw further foreign capital into the market over time. The shape of those inflows, though, is more likely to be gradual than sudden. Even if foreign ownership limits are fully lifted, Saudi's weight in the MSCI EM Index would return to roughly where it sat between 2022 and 2024, and active foreign investors have been steadily closing their underweights for years. Much of the inflow associated with this development has already been happening, just quietly. One large Saudi bank is positioned to benefit disproportionately, and across the wider market we continue to find value. We remain optimistic on Saudi and on the region's longer-term potential.

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Occasionally an announcement is large enough that you read it twice to make sure you have understood it. The AI acceleration partnership signed by the UAE and the US in May is one of those. At its centre is a 5GW AI data centre campus in Abu Dhabi, projected to be the largest such facility outside the US. We believe this may turn out to be one of the most consequential agreements the UAE has signed. This Think Piece sets out why. The agreement strengthens the UAE's strategic alignment with the US and drives investment, labour and productivity. This supports equity valuations through deepening capital markets and stronger growth across financial services, real estate, and technology-adjacent sectors. The future of AI remains genuinely uncertain. But the UAE is positioning itself for a world in which AI matters enormously, and many of our holdings are positioned to benefit.

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The future grows seemingly less predictable by the day, and AI is accelerating the trend. As fundamental investors, we usually derive most of a company's intrinsic value from cash flows generated beyond the first five years. The trouble is that those cash flows are getting harder to forecast, even as Gulf companies disclose more than ever. Banks are a useful illustration. Even banks that successfully deploy AI internally might face external pressure on funding costs, fee income and customer retention, and a shift down in their terminal multiples is not difficult to imagine using reasonable assumptions. We are not predicting that this will happen. But forecasting beyond five years genuinely feels harder than it used to be. The right response, we think, is to increasingly prioritise companies with durable competitive advantages, even if they do not appear obviously cheap relative to other, more AI-exposed companies.

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In this year’s Think Piece, we revisit the fundamentals of long-term valuation in an age of information overload and accelerating technological change. We examine how discount rates, equity risk premiums, and long-dated cash flows interact to shape company valuations, and why investors should spend less time reacting to market noise and more time assessing durability. As innovation reshapes entire sectors, companies with adaptability and strong competitive positions will warrant lower risk premiums—while others may fade.

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Dubai’s openness to expatriates has been central to its transformation. In this commentary, we explore how expatriate communities drive economic complexity, attract foreign investment, strengthen social networks, and enhance the city’s cultural appeal. Drawing on personal experience, we illustrate how these communities have shaped not only Dubai’s economy, but its identity—and why this may be one of its greatest long-term advantages.

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Qatar is on the cusp of generating immense new wealth from LNG production, prompting a key question: how much should be invested at home versus abroad? In this commentary, we explore Qatar’s economic options, the limits of domestic capital deployment, and the non-financial considerations that may shape its decisions. As Qatar seeks to balance growth, employment, and national identity, we consider what meaningful domestic investment might look like in a country with few urgent economic pressures.

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While much of the world grapples with falling birth rates, Dubai continues to grow. In this commentary, we explore why Dubai’s unique reliance on expatriates positions it for strong population growth in the decades ahead. We examine global fertility trends, the drivers behind Dubai’s demographic strategy, and the roles that India and China may play in shaping the city’s future. If Dubai’s population growth outpaces government forecasts, the investment implications could be significant.

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